If Trump is said to “underperform” in Iowa, be sure to look at the actual numbers

From The Washington Times, via RealClearPolitics:

In case you weren’t already aware, the fix is in. Before the first ballot has been cast, the media have already written their headlines for the Iowa caucuses: “Trump underperforms in Iowa.”

According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, former President Donald Trump leads the field with over 52%, ahead of his closest rival by a whopping 36 points. FiveThirtyEight has a similar polling average, putting him at just over 51%, with a lead of 34 points.

That’s a substantial margin, with plenty of room for underperformance. But let’s look at things from a broader historical perspective.

Since 1976, the biggest “landslide” in the Iowa Republican caucuses (excluding elections with a Republican incumbent) came in 1988, when Sen. Bob Dole amassed 37% of the vote and won by 12 points over televangelist Pat Robertson. In many contested elections of that period, Iowa has been decided by 3 points or less, reflecting the intense independence of Iowa caucusgoers.

Iowans pride themselves on making up their own minds, and they take their responsibility as the first state on the election calendar very seriously. They do not just go with the flow and rubber-stamp the national mood.

Mr. Trump is poised to win Iowa, and the victory may be a historic landslide. Even if he severely underperforms his polling lead, he’s still likely to outpace Dole’s record-setting margin. In this case, underperforming should count only if Mr. Trump comes below Dole’s historic 12-point margin ahead of the next closest finisher.

But that’s not the standard to which the media will hold him.

This is what the Left gets for pissing off the American public.  As we have said for years, progressives won’t like living under their new rules.  And they’ve all but martyred Trump to the point where his landslide is going to eclipse Reagan’s.

And if it turns out I’m wrong about that, it will be because the Left has frauded yet another election just like they did 2020.

Remember: Pinochet did nothing wrong.

Free Kindle book (limited time) – Saving The Spring

From Friday, 12/29/2023, through Tuesday, 1/2/2024, my novella Saving The Spring will be available FREE on Kindle.  (This isn’t a KDP “read for free”, this is FREE as in “you get to keep the book.”)

Jack Randall knew immediately something was off when he pulled up to the old roadhouse. Little did he know that crossing paths that night with the establishment’s beautiful bartender and her handsomely-rugged boyfriend/cook would lead to him recalling his former life as a god – or fighting a rematch with the god who had stolen his memories.

“Fans of Alma T.C. Boykin and Tom Rogneby will love this short story. It begins as a road trip with a couple of middle-aged snowbirds (well-armed ones) and turns into a fight for life, honor, and the immortal love of a lady as old as time. The plot is delightfully clever, the action fast and furious and you will love the main characters as they forge a new destiny.” — Amazon review by L. Paul

Merry Christmas!

To anyone who still peeks in here from time to time, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.  Have a couple of MidJourney Christmas images on the house.  Christmas is also a time for lovers, so…snuggle up to your sweetie and have a nice evening.

Timelines Novel Sale — 99 Cents Each!

I don’t normally advertise my books on this blog (other than in the sidebar) but I don’t know how much traffic my author blog gets…so here is a self-plug for a sale on the three Timelines novels to date.  This sale will run for a week starting at 5AM EST Saturday (Nov. 25) and running through 5AM EST next Saturday (Dec. 2).

You can of course read these novels for free on KU, but eventually you have to give KU books back.  You can now own all three of these for under $3.  (And what were you going to do with that $3?  You can’t even buy a latte for that.)

Anyway, here’s the link to the sale article on my author blog. And thanks to any and all of you who are readers.

This judge deserves sainthood.

The Hon. Roger T. Benitez, United States District Judge for the Southern District of California, in Duncan v. Bonta, p. 70, opinion issued today:

One government solution to a few mad men with guns is a law that makes into criminals responsible, law-abiding people wanting larger magazines simply to protect themselves. The history and tradition of the Second Amendment clearly supports state laws against the use or misuse of firearms with unlawful intent, but not the disarmament of the law-abiding citizen. That kind of a solution is an infringement on the Constitutional right of citizens to keep and bear arms. The adoption of the Second Amendment was a freedom calculus decided long ago by our first citizens who cherished individual freedom with its risks more than the subservient security of a British ruler or the smothering safety of domestic lawmakers. The freedom they fought for was worth fighting for then, and that freedom is entitled to be preserved still.

(My emphasis.)  No kidding.  Thank you, Judge Benitez.  Maybe people will sit up and take notice, now.

And by people I mean “non-communists.”

Yes, the site has a revamped look

And no, the header image is not a mistake.  It’s an absolutely mad, crazy, fucked-up world out there, now, and my header image fully reflects that.

It’s two Japanese characters that read, “BAKA”.  Or, “Crazy.”  Or, when applied to a person, “Fool,” “Idiot,” “Joe Biden,” or similar terms in English.  (That last may be my own interpretation.)

The most common explanation for this comes from Chinese history, where we are told

The kanji characters for baka together translate as “horse deer” or “point at a deer and say horse.” This is in reference to Zhao Gao, a Qin Dynasty politician who attempted to test his troops before committing treason. To test them, he presented a deer and called it a horse, which many rightfully found foolish. Those who wished to serve under him, however, followed along with his tomfoolery. The 11th-century book The Tale of Genji used this same explanation to talk about someone calling something another name to suck up to authority.

https://www.cbr.com/what-does-baka-mean-anime/, accessed 8 Sep 2023

Sounds about right to me.  These are the baka years, after all.